Cortina de Humo Revolucionaria

Por favor disculpenme por hacer estos dos posts en ingles. Tengo que llevar un blog en ingles para una clase y no tengo tiempo para escribir lo mismo en ambos idiomas. Sin embargo, ambos articulos tratan temas interesantes para nosotros (economia, politica y petroleo) y pense que valdria la pena publicarlos aqui tambien. Por favor diganme si es un problema y los podemos borrar o dejamos un link o algo por el estilo.

In yesterday's Alo Presidente president Hugo Chavez ordered his minister of defense to "deploy for him 10 army batallions and the air force to the Colombian border". This came in response to the Colombian Government's attack on FARC a mile into Ecuadorian territory, which led to the death of the terrorist organization's number 2 "Raul Reyes" (an alias). The hit was the most important for the Colombian Government in its long history of conflict with FARC. It was a great (internal) victory for President Uribe's Government, which has made cracking down on FARC a national priority and the most important focus of his mandate. At the same time it came with great (external) risks, as it violated Ecuadorian sovereignty and threatened to further destabilize relations with Colombia's neighbors. In fact, both Ecuador and Venezuela broke relations with Colombia an sent their army to the border. This is the most important conflict in the region in at least two decades.
A few thoughts from the Venezuelan point of view of the conflict:
-At first sight, Venezuela has no business getting involved (especially militarily) in a conflict between Colombia and Ecuador; at least, it definitely appears to be an overreaction. However, much more lies beneath the surface:
(1) FARC uses both Ecuador and Venezuela as "safe havens" when being chased by the Colombian military. What happened in Ecuador could have arguably happened in Venezuela, thus there is a sense of "putting our foot down" and preventing a similar situation from happening in the future.
(2) Chavez has great relations with FARC, as they share revolutionary ideals. For instance, in recent years Chavez has asked the international community to take FARC off their lists of "terrorist organizations" and rather consider them an "insurgent group". Also, in Alo president Chavez called "Raul Reyes" a hero and held a minute of silence in his honor. In recent months Chavez has also become the mediator in the Colombian conflict and has facilitated the release of several "hostages" by FARC. Lastly, preliminary investigations by Colombian officials of captured FARC computers show evidence of long rumored financial support of FARC by the Venezuelan Government.
(3) The Chavez led Venezuelan Government has terrible relations with the Colombian Government. Essentially, Uribe represents everything Chavez stands against: the "right", the old "oligarchy" that has "plundered" our region for generations, a "puppy" of the US "empire", etc. While relations have been bad from the beginning of the Uribe administration, they recently hit their lowest point when, while mediating the release of FARC hostages, Chavez made a call to the leader of the Colombian military, expressly defying Uribe's orders. At the time, the Venezuelan Government recalled its ambassador to Colombia, insulted President Uribe, and threatened further actions.
(4) President Correa of Ecuador has long been considered an ally of President Chavez, part of the region's "movement to the left". In fact, President Correa's reaction to the event changed radically from before to after Chavez contacted him.
(5) President Chavez's popularity has been declining in recent months and the country's economic woes are beginning to become evident. Last December Chavez lost his first election, a bid to reform the constitution, in order to (among other things) allow indefinite presidential reelections. While it was a tight contest, it showed Chavez as mortal and seems to have signified a momentum shift for the "Bolivarian Revolution". The most important factor behind the loss was, in my opinion, a declining and increasingly distorted economy. Price and exchange controls have led to, for example, supermarkets full of Nutella (an import) but lacking basic necessities such as milk, chicken and sugar. A common question was how the government was going to provide increased social security benefits (another change included in the reform) if it couldn't even provide milk. Inflation is getting out of control, private investment is very low, and the oil industry is becoming increasingly inefficient. In this sense, an external conflict (real or imaginary) presents the smoke screen to distract public attention.